ICT SMT Divergence: When Two Markets Disagree at Highs and Lows

When two markets have been moving together and only one makes a new high, the disagreement is noticeable. ICT uses SMT divergence for such relative discrepancies. The discrepancy and the later outcome are separate observations.


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When two markets have been moving together and only one makes a new high, the disagreement is noticeable. ICT uses SMT divergence for such relative discrepancies. The discrepancy and the later outcome are separate observations.

One made a new high. The other did not. A: 100 → 110. B: 100 → 95. Only A exceeded its old high.
Concept illustration: One made a new high. The other did not. A: 100 → 110. B: 100 → 95. Only A exceeded its old high.

A positively related pair

In a fictional NQ/ES example, NQ exceeds its prior high while ES does not exceed its own. Compare each market with its own reference rather than subtracting their price levels.

This is a teaching scenario, not a current quote or identified opportunity. A similar comparison can be defined for BTC/ETH without assuming equal results.

Inverse relationships need a different rule

For an inverse relationship such as the one examined between EUR/USD and a dollar index, do not reuse a high-versus-high rule. A new high on one side may instead be compared with a new low on the other. A dollar index contains multiple currencies and is not an exact inverse instrument.

Price-level correlation differs from same-interval return correlation. Assess the relationship over a predefined trailing period; do not select the pair after inspecting outcomes.

Align time and instruments

Match bar intervals, overlapping sessions, data delays, and futures contracts. A closure or contract roll affecting one series can distort the comparison. Preserve both swing times and confirmation times.

Test all qualifying events

Collect every event meeting the rule and compare movement over fixed later horizons. Do not use swings before confirmation. Relationships can change, and a discrepancy can persist or recur during a trend.

Continue with common foundations

Market structure · ICT liquidity · Premium & discount · ICT Killzones

Research methods and reporting standards

For education and research. Numerical examples are teaching assumptions unless explicitly identified otherwise. Historical results do not guarantee future performance.

ABOUT THIS ARTICLE

This article is for education and research, not advice tailored to your finances. Historical findings do not guarantee future returns.

Methodology · Disclosure · Corrections

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