Research
Freeze the rules first.
Publish the results second.
Research 001–005 are published with measured results. Read each study alongside its rules and limitations.
Start with the 001–005 synthesis → · Technical data & reproducibility index
How often does a 15m FVG revisit?
On BTCUSDT 15m, first touch rose from 70.46% within 5 bars to 93.19% within 100 bars. The number depends on how long you wait.
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Does timeframe change the answer?
With the same number of bars, 1m / 5m / 15m revisit rates were nearly the same. The large gap appeared when clock time was fixed.
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Does confirmation time matter?
New York-labeled FVGs had a higher 20-bar revisit rate, but fewer events per observed hour. Association does not prove causation.
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Does a sweep really mean reversal?
5,071 sweeps produced a 50.48% positive reversal-direction share after 5 bars. The simple rule did not show a clear reversal edge.
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Can funding + OI predict direction?
Across 1,785 settlements, the nine states did not separate 4-hour direction robustly. Large OI changes showed a clearer volatility difference.
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Trace a result back to its rules
The study pages connect eligible and success counts, event rules and calculations to the independent rebuild. Keep published findings separate from what that implementation checks.
The five studies together · 84 comparisons and direct download · Triggers versus actual fills